A rebuttal to Weather Underground statement
“In the last 35 years of global warming, sun and climate have been going in opposite directions.”
First of all, Dr Jeff Masters, as a PHD in METEOROLOGY and someone running a business, is someone is naturally have respect for. You don’t accomplish what he has without having to face an overcome challenges. So I look at this differently than some of the ignorant or deceptive missives from others I have challenged before on this site, many from the climatologists that make statements that show me they don’t look at the weather.
Lets look at the last 400 years of sunspot cycle
The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 60 in the Spring of 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years.
The prediction method has been slightly revised. The previous method found a fit for both the amplitude and the starting time of the cycle along with a weighted estimate of the amplitude from precursor predictions (polar fields and geomagnetic activity near cycle minimum). Recent work [see Hathaway Solar Physics; 273, 221 (2011)] indicates that the equatorward drift of the sunspot latitudes as seen in the Butterfly Diagram follows a standard path for all cycles provided the dates are taken relative to a starting time determined by fitting the full cycle. Using data for the current sunspot cycle indicates a starting date of May of 2008. Fixing this date and then finding the cycle amplitude that best fits the sunspot number data yields the current (revised) prediction.